Our Mission

--- We hope to one day transform public policy making into a science ---

We are concerned about the long term well-being of the planet and its inhabitants and we strongly believe that the decisions that shape this world should be based on real facts and transparency instead of rhetoric and feelings.

Public policies are chosen on the basis of their predicted effects. In this complex world it is impossible to make any 100% accurate predictions, but it is possible to make predictions that are as good as theoretically possible i.e. predictions that take into account all existing knowledge and exactly quantify all uncertainties. If used correctly, Tree of Knowledge does exactly this (whereby it only takes into account the specific factual knowledge which users have entered).
Tree of Knowledge's goal is to empower politicians to exactly model and compare the effect of different policies. We want to give them the power to create undeniable arguments: if anybody disagrees with the predictions made by the Tree of Knowledge and they have additional facts/data, they can add them to the model and observe the changes. If they don't have any additional facts/data, they are not presenting a valid argument.

Functionality

Research paper about Tree of Knowledge

To find out about Tree of Knowledge's functionality we suggest signing up (top right of this screen) and trying it out. It is free for everyone to use. The user accounts are only for personalisation and to identify users who are being actively harmful to the holistic model.

Anyway, here is what you can do with Tree of Knowledge:

Model your system

Whether you are interested in international trade, a country's macroeconomic developments or consumer behaviour - whatever your system of interest - you can model your system in less than 10 minutes. All you need to do is set the scene i.e. through drag&dropping, specify the agents/actors of the system and how they relate and press 'play' to observe the system unfold. To improve the model, you can easily change the agents' initial values and the default behaviour, which the system provided.

Evaluate models

If you upload data relating to your system to the knowledge base, Tree of Knowledge will automatically use this data to score the simulation, set the initial values of the agents to those of your system and refine the simulation rules.

Understand your system

In the analysis environment you can gain a full understanding of your system by watching the simulations unfold. You can inspect any aspect of the simulations.

Test hypotheses

To check whether a relation or causal dependency holds, you only have to formulate it as a new rule. The system automatically learns with what probability this new rule holds.

Make predictions

To see what the future will look like, you only need to run the simulation. Due to the Bayesian probability distributions and Monte-Carlo simulations, there are accurate error-margins for all predictions.

Simulate new scenarios

You can easily simulate new scenarios, by changing some of the initial values e.g. a tax rate or the price of a product.

Find optimum strategies

This has not been implemented yet, but in future you will be able to e.g. determine the best tax rate or price of a product. For this you have to specify what you want to optimize for and the system learns which tax rate/product price optimizes this metric.

The Tree of Knowledge grows as more datasets are added to the knowledge base and as more behaviours are modelled and evaluated.

Revolutionize Social Sciences